RATE CYCLE
Regime desk · hike vs cut
Size Standard · composite 1.50
ES1! / MES1!
Standard longs on weakness. No breakout chasing. First 3–6 months = chop, not thesis death.
NQ1! / MNQ1!
Underweight duration until oil and core roll over. A with D overlay.
Labor + activity. 40% of composite.
PCE + oil. 2.00 means room to ease.
HY OAS. A zero here is breakage.
Multiple + EPS + 10-year.
Yellow inputs
Change these. Scores and the regime are formulas.
Healthy ≤4.3 · Caution 4.4–4.6 · Break ≥4.7
Healthy <0.20 · Caution 0.20–0.49 · Break ≥0.50
Healthy ≤220 · Caution 221–249 · Break ≥250
Healthy ≥100 · Caution 50–99 · Break <50
Healthy ≥52 · Caution 48–51.9 · Break <48
Healthy ≥1.5 · Caution 0.0–1.4 · Break <0
Easing ≤2.6 · Sticky 2.7–3.4 · Problem ≥3.5
Calm ≤80 · Elevated 81–99 · Shock ≥100
Healthy ≤350 · Caution 351–449 · Break ≥450
Cheap ≤17 · Neutral 17–21 · Stretched >21
Healthy ≥10 · OK 5–9.9 · Soft <5
Easy ≤4.25 · Workable 4.26–5.00 · Tight >5.00
Policy state
Last FOMC action
Decision matrix · live row ringed
ES
Buy weakness. Trail. First 3–6 months = chop, not thesis death. Prefer ES over NQ if real yields rising.
NQ
Tighter leash. Fade rips into higher real yields. Only add leaders that are beating on EPS / capex ROI.
ES
Add risk. Trend-follow. This cut is rocket fuel, not a warning.
NQ
Duration works again. Buy pullbacks in growth. Size up vs A.
ES
Do NOT buy the first cut. Flatten or tactical short failed rallies. Wait for credit + earnings washout.
NQ
Worst tape. Duration bounce can trap. Leaders break. Stay out until washout completes.
ES
Cut size. Respect ranges. Do not pay breakout prices. Energy/value can outperform.
NQ
Underweight duration. Multiples compress. Only hold names that can pass through costs and still grow EPS.
ES
Stay long, trail wide. Breadth may lag — that is normal in this analog.
NQ
Own the boom. Do not fade every hike. BUT this analog dies late and fast — pre-define the exit.
ES
Half size. Mean-revert. No hero trades. Wait for labor, credit, or inflation to choose.
NQ
Same. Do not leverage duration in a regime that has not chosen.